OBVIOUSNESS OF A FUZZY ENTROPY NECESSARY MODEL
Remarks of a technological nature :
After the elimination of the large carnivores, which is always lasting, see the adventures of reintroduction of some bears in the French Pyrenees, Man became his own predatory. Today, hunting weapons weigh little in the armament industry, which progressed so much that it sell individual weapons of war, light and effective, to any unit which projects to enlist child-soldiers.
When such an engine is assembled on a car, with automatic box and air-conditioning: "Through numerous, complex calculations, actual figures for loss of thermodynamic potential have been calculated in units of total kilowatt hours (kwh) per automobile. An estimate of 5000-6525kwh per automobile emerges. The estimate of the ideal thermodynamic potential requirement for producing an automobile, on the other hand, is only about 30kwh. The enormous magnitude of the gap between actual and ideal thermodynamic potential costs is striking." (ref 32) What is more, some of these vehicles produced at a great thermodynamic potential cost, show a remarkably bad propelling output. For example, a sport utility vehicle (SUV or 4x4) of 130 to 300cv (often "single-seater" and called tractor of Chelsea in London; in Europe 90% of them never drive off-road), or a caf‚ sport car Volks(?)wagen-Bugatti of 16cyl and 1000cv. Both are crawling downtown at an average speed lower than 20km/h. At equal speed, a consumption of 15 litres/100km represents 450 times the consumption of some experimental manned vehicles, which cover more than 3000km with 1 liter of gas. The European market size of the "SUV" or 4x4 is increasing since years. Moreover Renault, which was not on this segment, has projects now. (ref 63) In manufacturers' catalogues, the power of a model often increases from year to year; it never decreases. " ... expectations of the consumers are in contradiction with the fall of fuel consumption". (ref. 29) At the time of a recent car show, the press noticed that the manufacturers had almost schizophrenic behaviours. They would be torn between the ecological basic tendency and the desires of always more power, more accelerations and comfort. Interesting symptom, on which we must keep an eye.
A car often stops. Down town in Europe, where 30% of the rides are shorter than the kilometre, mayors are appreciated at first, and then re-elected, for their capacity to create parking areas. In the near town, the digging of an underground car park caused the collapse of the quarter of a building, and weakened what's left. The adjoining street, future approach to the car park, was fissured and partly prohibited. A school, located on the third side of the excavation, suffered damage and was closed. Fortunately, the catastrophe took place during night, without losses of human lives. An excavator, buried under the ruins, remained visible a long time. After much thought, the Court judged that the origin of the accident was not given. (see the page "Economy and Justice") The Mayor assured the shopkeepers that the digging of the underground car park would go on. The car is part of the West life style. "Our way of life is not negotiable", said a Western President. Except in the event of energy shortage, a ruling party cannot limit the consumption of free energy without risking a political suicide.
More modestly but everywhere in the West, amateurs improve their Catalysts' performance by home-building their boats or planes. Currently, an efficient light aircraft have with difficulty an "evolutionary" advantage over a less good and energy greedier model. A situation that should change when progress of electronics will make the all-weathers flight equipment cheaper. The sport aircraft will become an economical mean of transport, and the currently limited market will develop considerably. An evolution that aeronautical associations try rightly to promote.
In Europe, there has been frequent tolerance of construction, and rebuilding, on periodically flooded ground, yet charted for 200 years. Each one seems to find its account there. The owners yield a ground, often agricultural and of little value, at an unhoped-for price. Property developers and estate agencies are busy, banks lend, and local tradesmen hope for more customers. Notaries prepare the acts without state of mind, lawyers and ushers are ready. The elected officials lead the construction to carry out their promises of local development, to show their dynamism and get more funds. Without a word, the tax payers pay an official device of catastrophe, said to be natural. Disasters those are there less and less natural. Everywhere men are canalizing, dyking, concreting and tarring. Especially, they continue to accelerate the water run-off in the upstream basins, at the level of the piece or the way. Owners don't like mud, or motorists aquaplaning.
Downstream precisely, the purchasing suckers, sometimes company heads, find the ground flat and rather cheap. They sign their first cheque as if signing the Declaration of Independence, while convincing themselves that the centennial flood will arrive in 99 years. More revealing, during the last disaster in the South of France where even plants were destroyed, (see the Lustucru factory near Arles, whose rebuilding was even so abandoned) a stricken owner acknowledged that he did not know he lived in a periodically flooded area.
In France, nobody speaks any more of dry weirs, on the level of the hamlet, the village or greater, only mean of regularizing the flow downstream. Yet and fortunately, our Capital city is protected by the big storage dams Marne, Aube and Seine; a worry less for the provincials who regularly paddle in the basins of the Somme, the Loire, the Rh“ne or the Garonne. After an important flood, a committee is quickly convened. The appropriations to be engaged are considerable, the political decisions necessarily unpopular; the solutions require a long-term supported resoluteness; only the highest authorities may decide. Paris makes promises as usual, and as usual is acting rather in the short term ("My dear compatriots! Before my election I promised strong acts to you, I will continue to promise them" - Imitator LeLuron, formerly - approximate translation). Any committee shows easily the inconsistencies, such as, for example, the media call in urgency to German firemen and pumping equipment during the last Proven‡al floods. The Capital city being now few threatened, the government didn't wake up to the seriousness of the situation elsewhere. The necessary decisions being not made, committees are slowly constrained to put the file in the lower drawer and to wait for the next disaster. Except for one; funds were recently released to counter a hypothetical flood of the Seine, in Paris. Compared with the beaver (see below), which often prefers to work in the upstream part of a river, would man show he is a better Catalyst there too? Would he produce more Fuzzy Entropy by repairing a big damage downstream? Recently in Saxony (Germany), the damage was estimated at 10 billion euros. Sometimes, it relates to constructions on periodically flooded grounds, declared not building land under East Germany. Would East Germany have suffered from a less Efficiency Factor Sf than the West Germany? In France the Government wanted to accelerate construction everywhere: " we must increase the coefficient of soil occupancy, or soften the rules of construction in the periodically flooded zones." (ref 128) Nobody speaks any more about these dispositions since the Xynthia storm on the French Atlantic littoral. Noch einmal, this catastrophe does not teach us anything ; it proceeded according to production process's of Fuzzy Entropy already described, here in several steps: The remark that begins this paragraph, remains valid in the case of constructions:
In the European Med Club's countries, the majority of drivers roll above the authorized speed limits, down town and elsewhere, everywhere. Public Authorities are submerged by millions of vehicles. As if they sought a possible balance between the Efficiency Factor Sf of the car-tool and the inevitable loss of human Catalysts, they defined speed limits. Unable to make them respect, they proceed no further than expensive amulets and incantations, like speed limit's panels or displays of road safety messages. "When an offense is committed, the probability of be charged is too weak ", said a French interdepartmental road safety delegate. So a charged driver is hardly dissuaded. Rather he has the impression, at best to have drawn the bad number, in the worst case to be victim of an injustice. Besides, let us notice the frequent leniency of the justice in this field, particularly when in front of an supposedly inextricable hank of responsibilities. (ref 6) Between 1992 and 2002 in France, the number of administrative decisions of driving license suspension has been divided by three ; (ref 28) often no car = no job. To speak as an economist, are speed and accidents means to increase the Gross Domestic Product? Well, it seems that there is not enough Kinetic Fuzzy Entropy by studying and doing expensive deformable metal-frame, "high performance" tires, ABS, ESP, IPS, airbags, with microprocessors everywhere. Without speaking about the Pharaonic "improvements" of the road network. 440 000 euros for a small intersection roundabout of two minor roads, in open country near my village and far from any city. However, this same technology would easily process inboard recorders for any vehicle. Recorders are already installed (Siemens) on some company's vehicles. Reliable and cheap, these recorders would allow the only dissuasive control, the retrospective checking. Why don't equip at least the faster powerful cars with recorders? A recent revealing French poll showed that a majority of people was against, even when most were sure to never drive such a car. In the name of the "last space of freedom"? Freedom to produce Fuzzy Entropy?
If the average kilometric cost of cars is decreasing, which happens sometimes after an energy crisis, the user will compensate by living farther from his place of work (US statistics).
Trucks transport products of low value added on thousands of kilometres. Greek milk is conveyed in Holland, where it's transformed into yoghurt which will be sold in Spain. German potatoes cross the Alps to be washed in Italy, and return to the country by the same way. In the United States, the golf courses multiply in the desert of Las Vegas, and the water that keeps them green, winter and summer alike, is imported from Canada ; a 2-3000km round trip. The power of the lobby is growing and now it weighs on the governments. Interesting consequence: In France recently it obtained, by simple threats, a partial tax reduction on gas oil that is equivalent to a subsidy. Lorries pollute heavily and their implications in accidents are increasing. How to understand that the large gauge waterway project Hamburg K”ln Karlsruhe Belfort Lyon Marseille (may be Barcelona and Genoa) is interminably disputed? Even ecologists reject it, so the coast is clear to the "all by truck" for this future major economic artery of Western Europe. How is the road transport continuing to take the advantage on the rail and inland waterway transports? In France: 1986, 54% of the market ; 2006, 80%. (ref 65)
Remarks of a social nature :
As well for humanity, if one day placed under difficult conditions by its own Collective Catalyst?
It's common sense that for religions, ideologies, parties, enterprises, trades, armies and team sports, which gather for a common purpose, the result of total Sf will be better than that of, more or less, dispersed individual efforts. If they can exist, nobody will try to build an Ariane V in his garage.
In the Christian tradition the Power is represented by the "pastor" (of souls), an exotic figure in the city centre, but which marks the perpetuation of these Entropically efficient communities. The stick of the Mesopotamian shepherd took the shape of the bishop's crook, and in our so-called individualistic society, the faithful doesn't take offence when considered like sheep. By the way of Evolution, would Fuzzy Entropy have created the taste of Power, which ensures the duration of the Chain and makes easily admit the risks of a high rank, more exposed?
In the United States additional consumption was quantified to 73 billion kWh of energy and 2,76 billion m3 of water for 2005. (ref 90)
So, are our societies tolerating towards our familiar poisons, alcohol and tobacco, because "hooked" people die statistically sooner? That these untimely deaths involve for our society a load, or not, is still discussed. However, as the capital immobilized by the pensioners to ensure their security is often not very productive, showing rather Realized Fuzzy Entropy, the total capitalized mass would be thus decreased. Moreover, the more frequent transmission of the inheritance would more often start Kinetic Fuzzy Entropy. In plain language, many heirs spend part or whole of their heritage. Would there be a more rational explanation to the governments' difficulties to limit the damage caused by these drugs? A minister decides on measures intended to preserve public health, his colleague on production aids to preserve an economic sector: How to understand the media success of calls for funds intended for the treatment of diseases, rather rare and concerning especially young patients? Of course, near seven hundred annual AIDS-related deaths in France are unacceptable. On the other hand, what is done concerning older patients? Why this only resigned, and occulted, acceptance for the hundred of thousands of deaths due to alcohol and tobacco? The general attitude appears identical with respect to the athletes, artists, brokers, businessmen, lorry drivers, students, who shorten their lives by drug taking to improve their performance. Man thinks of a phenomenon of rebound too, antagonist to the successes of medicine. The most obvious example is that of the racing cyclists, of whom few benefit lengthily from their retirement. They are the livelihood of many: fourteen thousand people for the only caravan of the State subsidized "Tour de France". Their veterinarians do not speak, nor the sponsors, organizers, trainers, commentators. The rare cyclists that speak are accused by their pars to have forgotten the omerta, to bite the hand that feeds them, in short to endanger a juicy system that is surviving smoothly. Marginalized, they are quickly banished. Amazingly, the others' families don't appear really concerned. Like the public, without illusions for a long time, which continues to applaud incredible feats, such as a developed power of near 450W during 20mn in a final climb, after five hours of race and three cols. The cyclists convinced of doping, more numerous than the pure ones, are not hung. They undergo a purgatory period of very variable duration. As soon as a new black sheep was detected, his sporting director must give a press conference in front of mocking journalists. He expresses his sorrow to have granted its confidence to a boy who had hidden his duplicity and perhaps given the bad example to his comrades. It's only a bad moment to endure, and the show must go on.
Remarks of general nature :
Can the cellular automates of J. Conway, S. Wolfram or C. Langton function, without a pen or the electromagnetic fields of their computers? In biology, bio-automates explore millions configurations a second, and find the good one. (ref 27) What makes pass from a complexion to another? Do the known potentials modelize the phenomenon satisfactorily? With a thought for Einstein, what is throwing the dice? What to say on the appearance of the membrane-shelter of the future miraculous cellular mini-factory, on the surprising costly passage to the powerful chemistry of oxygen, on the proteins' withdrawal, or the arrival of endothermic animals, then of all-terrain and all-weather efficient homeothermic?
Sometimes, we have not a unique model for a phenomenon, thus in the flow models of the wing's aerodynamics (and cf. the 6th problem of Hilbert on the kinetic theory of gasses). Is even the conventional logic, with excluded third, compatible with the fuzzy logic? Is the energy transformation following the use of fuzzy logic very different from that obtained by traditional logic? For example: the control of the subway of Senda‹.
By induction, let us apply this assumption in the world of art: directing the Evolution, would Fuzzy Entropy select the mental diagrams that the artist, traditionally speaking of sudden inspiration, reproduces in his favourite field of expression? Mental diagrams that his public does recognize with emotion and that gather?
There too, would the Fuzzy Entropy account for the scientific behaviour, that occults the obviousness of a without end reseach, and sometimes knowingly, privileges the gratifying feeling of action? The religious belief, for example, is accompanying the pilgrim in his walking towards a sanctuary ; did Evolution give to the scientific researcher a conviction that accompanies him in his thought process? Polemical topic (T. Kuhn) that an amateur may consider more serenely ; having no credit with the recognized scientists, he cannot lose it. There too, is the peripheral reason concealed by a threshold effect? Cf. the page "Philosophical Presuppositions". Modestly, a personal example: I have usually the conviction of the validity of the Catalysis of Fuzzy Entropy model whereas to date, the entourage put aside, nobody let me know that he adheres to this idea. Thus, Einstein and Oppenheimer could only underestimate a parameter more significant today, the development consequences of a hugely powerful bomb. Consequences that they will assume morally, later. At the end of his life, Einstein have regretted, appears it, not to have chosen to be a plumber. It's a general effect: a many physicists and especially mathematicians, admit with difficulty that their research, apparently far from reality, probably will a day have Fuzzy Entropy repercussions, not necessarily in conformity with their ethics. Even today where the hindsight reveals us the obviousness, a researcher of high level in quantum physics, tries to take refuge behind his ingenuous thirst for knowledge. He does not want to hear about the possible consequence of his work, a material, a revolutionary computer that the Pentagon, inter alia, waits impatiently. (ref 84)
However, the consequences of these only partial theories are finally there, with their multiplier effects, and their false paradoxes when you leave their applicability domain:
Is its capacity of Kinetic Fuzzy Entropy the present touchstone of any model, from quantum to cosmic? Reciprocally, would the response to the Kantian interrogation be that our knowledge of the world is definitively limited to the only data necessary to the Fuzzy Entropy production?
Slowly but surely, the highly no intuitive concept of Entropy, or perhaps Fuzzy Entropy, will become common knowledge. Then our descendants will find odd that we could degrade so much useful energy with such a bad efficiency, without us to question. My Mirage burned 240 litre/minute of kerosene at Mach 2.
Up to now, it did not help us to clarify the emergence. Gravity is the motor of a glider, but between the same points of separation from the towplane and the inescapable landing, two pilots will follow different trajectories, satisfying or disappointing. Between the starting place and the inevitable arrival, a snowboarder will fall and the other not ; the emergent pleasure of surfing will be suddenly stopped, or not. At the macroscopic scale, we will admit that the deterministic model is our best creation tool of Fuzzy Entropy. At the individual level, if the thought precedes and directs action, dogma however currently under discussion (see before), let us admit that the reassuring model of free will remains applicable ; or if you prefer but heavier to carry, regard you as a random phenomenon, what is then exactly you when you toss a coin. If you have a tidy amount, you may choose between a luxury car or a construction on a periodically flooded ground (to simplify), with a final balance sheet Fuzzy Entropically comparable.
To consider a restriction of the energy world wide consumption proves to be utopian. To switch off the light is advised when leaving a room, which saves 100W ; your neighbour has just bought a SUV of 100 000W and will make a return journey of 1000km to see the Monaco Grand Prix.
Could conventional thermodynamics, monument of a great formal beauty, clarify the previous commonplace remarks? Do these simple observations show that the "emergence" of a probably omnipresent "Fuzzentropy", or of a similar concept, is inevitable? One day, will this thesis be operative for a sustainable development, "instrumental" if this word loses its philosophical pejorative connotation? Let us be persuaded that to give it a stronger mathematical base will be urgent soon. For the near future, let us hope that this Fuzzentropy model will be predictive, falsifiable, and satisfy a statistically signifiant part of the scholars, in a defined field and for an unpredictable duration. (see before)
Beyond this Fuzzentropy, consolidated by the Entropy of Information, perhaps will we be able to speak then of a Total Fuzzy Entropy.
Remarks in form of conclusion :
Did Gravitation permit the Earth to benefit from a Fuzzy Entropy Potential since its formation? Was the Life a mean, among others, of increasing this potential? Initially not very "Fuzzentropically" (argh !) efficient, Life progressed while reaching improbable stages, always in the direction of an increasing Fuzzy Entropy production. Today, after the vegetable photosynthesis, animal synthesis of ATP and fruitful industrial synthesis of ammonia, Haber-Bosch process, Life is reaching the nuclear fusion. The pessimists will see a Promethean adventure in this race ahead, and recall us that any medal has a reverse. But if we develop a thermodynamics research at the height of the stakes, our remarkable aptitude for the energy conversion will allow us to avoid also its detrimental consequences.
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