OBVIOUSNESS OF A FUZZY ENTROPY NECESSARY MODEL
Remarks of a technological nature :
After the elimination of the large carnivores, which is always lasting, see the adventures of reintroduction of some bears in the French Pyrenees, Man became his own predatory. Today, hunting weapons weigh little in the armament industry, which progressed so much that it sell individual weapons of war, light and effective, to any unit which projects to enlist child-soldiers.
Two indicators would show that the process accelerates: Would Entropy gravity be the engine of the globalization?
When such an engine is assembled on a car, with automatic box and air-conditioning: "Through numerous, complex calculations, actual figures for loss of thermodynamic potential have been calculated in units of total kilowatt hours (kwh) per automobile. An estimate of 5000-6525kwh per automobile emerges. The estimate of the ideal thermodynamic potential requirement for producing an automobile, on the other hand, is only about 30kwh. The enormous magnitude of the gap between actual and ideal thermodynamic potential costs is striking." (ref. 32) What is more, some of these vehicles produced at a great thermodynamic potential cost, show a remarkably bad propelling output. For example, a sport utility vehicle (SUV or 4x4) of 130 to 300cv (often "single-seater" and called tractor of Chelsea in London; in Europe 90% of them never drive off-road), or a café sport car Volks(?)wagen-Bugatti of 16cyl and 1000cv. Both are crawling downtown at an average speed lower than 20km/h. At equal speed, a consumption of 15 litres/100km represents 450 times the consumption of some experimental manned vehicles, which cover more than 3000km with 1 liter of gas. The European market size of the "SUV" or 4x4 is increasing since years. Moreover Renault, which was not on this segment, has projects now. (ref. 63) In manufacturers' catalogues, the power of a model often increases from year to year; it never decreases. “ ... expectations of the consumers are in contradiction with the fall of fuel consumption”. (ref. 29) At the time of a recent car show, the press noticed that the manufacturers had almost schizophrenic behaviours. They would be torn between the ecological basic tendency and the desires of always more power, more accelerations and comfort. Interesting symptom, to be continued.
A car often stops. Downtown in Europe, where 30% of the rides are shorter than the kilometre, mayors are appreciated at first, and then re-elected, for their capacity to create parking areas. In the near town, the digging of an underground car park caused the collapse of the quarter of a building, and weakened what’s left. The adjoining street, future approche to the car park, was fissured and partly prohibited. A school, located on the third side of the excavation, suffered damage and was closed. Fortunately, the catastrophe took place during night, without losses of human lives. An excavator, buried under the ruins, remained visible a long time. After much thought, the Court judged that the origin of the accident was not given. Mayor assured the shopkeepers that the digging of the underground car park would go on. The car is part of the West life style. “Our way of life is not negotiable”, said a Western President. Except in the event of energy shortage, a ruling party cannot limit the consumption of free energy without risking a political suicide.
More modestly but everywhere in the West, amateurs improve their Catalysts’ performance by home-building their boats or planes. Currently, an efficient light aircraft have with difficulty an "evolutionary" advantage over a less good and energy greedier model. A situation that should change when progress of electronics will make the all-weathers flight equipments cheaper. The sport aircrafts will become means of transport, and the currently limited market will develop considerably. An evolution that aeronautical associations try rightly to promote.
In Europe, there has been frequent tolerance of construction, and rebuilding, on periodically flooded ground, yet charted for 200 years. Each one seems to find its account there. The owners yield a ground, often agricultural and of little value, at an unhoped-for price. Property developers and estate agencies are busy, banks lend, and local tradesmen hope for more customers. Notaries prepare the acts without state of mind, lawyers and ushers are ready. The elected officials lead the construction to carry out their promises of local development, to show their dynamism and get more funds. Without a word, the tax payers pay an official device of catastrophe, said to be natural. Disasters those are there less and less natural. Everywhere men are canalizing, dyking, concreting and tarring. Especially, they continue to accelerate the water run-off in the upstream basins, at the level of the piece or the way. Owners don’t like mud, or motorists aquaplaning.
Downstream precisely, the purchasing suckers, sometimes company heads, find the ground flat and rather cheap. They sign their first cheque as if signing the Declaration of Independance, while convincing themselve that the centennial flood will arrive in 99 years. More revealing, during the last disaster in the South of France where even plants were destroyed, (see the Lustucru factory near Arles, whose rebuilding was even so abandoned) a stricken owner acknowledged that he did not know he lived in a periodically flooded area.
In France, nobody speaks any more of dry weirs, on the level of the hamlet, the village or greater, only mean of regularizing the flow downstream. Yet and fortunately, our capital city is protected by the big storage dams Marne, Aube and Seine; a worry less for the provincials who regularly paddle in the basins of the Somme, the Loire, the Rhône or the Garonne. After an important flood, a committee is quickly convened. The appropriations to be engaged are considerable, the political decisions necessarily unpopular; the solutions require a long-term supported resoluteness; only the highest authorities may decide. Paris makes promises as usual, and as usual is acting rather in the short term (“My dear compatriots! Before my election I promised strong acts to you, I will continue to promise them” - Imitator LeLuron, formerly - approximate translation). Any committee shows easily the inconsistencies, such as, for example, the media call in urgency to German firemen and pumping equipment during the last Provencal floods. The Capital city being now few threatened, the government didn't wake up to the seriousness of the situation elsewhere. The necessary decisions being not made, committees are slowly constrained to put the file in the lower drawer and to wait for the next disaster. Except for one; funds were recently released to counter a hypothetical flood of the Seine, in Paris. Compared with the beaver (see below), which often prefers to work in the upstream part of a river, would man show he is a better Catalyst there too? Would he produce more Fuzzy Entropy by repairing a big damage downstream? Recently in Saxony (Germany), the damage was estimated at 10 billion euros. Sometimes, it relates to constructions on periodically flooded grounds, declared not building land under East Germany. Would East Germany have suffered from a less Efficiency Factor Sf than the West Germany? Remark remains valid in the case of constructions:
In the European Med Club’s countries, the majority of drivers roll above the authorized speed limits, downtown and elsewhere, everywhere. Public Authorities are submerged by millions of vehicles. As if they sought a possible balance between the Efficiency Factor Sf of the car-tool and the inevitable loss of human Catalysts, they defined speed limits. Unable to make them respect, they proceed no further than expensive amulets and incantations, like speed limit's panels or displays of road safety messages. “When an offence is committed, the probability of be charged is too weak ”, said a French interdepartmental road safety delegate. So a charged driver is hardly dissuaded. Rather he has the impression, at best to have drawn the bad number, in the worst case to be victim of an injustice. Besides, let us notice the frequent leniency of the justice in this field, particularly when in front of an supposedly inextricable hank of responsibilities. (ref. 6) Between 1992 and 2002 in France, the number of administrative decisions of driving licence suspension has been divided by three (ref. 28) To speak as an economist, are speed and accidents means to increase the Gross Domestic Product? Well, it seems that there is not enough Kinetic Fuzzy Entropy by studying and doing expensive deformable metal-frame, “high performance” tires, ABS, ESP, IPS, airbags, with micro-processors everywhere. Without speaking about the pharaonic "improvements" of the road network. However, this same technology would easily process inboard recorders for any vehicle. Recorders are already installed (Siemens) on some company’s vehicles. Reliable and cheap, these recorders would allow the only dissuasive control, the retrospective checking. Why don’t equip at least the faster powerful cars with recorders? A recent revealing French poll showed that a majority of people was against, even when most were sure to never drive such a car. In the name of the “last space of freedom”? Freedom to produce Fuzzy Entropy?
If the average kilometric cost of cars is decreasing, which happens sometimes after an energy crisis, the user will compensate by living farther from his place of work (US statistics).
Trucks transport products of low value added on thousands of kilometres. Greek milk is conveyed in Holland, where it's transformed into yoghurt which will be sold in Spain. German potatoes cross the Alps to be washed in Italy, and return to the country by the same way. The power of the lobby is growing and now it weighs on the governments. Interesting consequence: In France recently it obtained, by simple threats, a partial tax reduction on gas oil that is equivalent to a subsidy. Lorries pollute heavily and their implications in accidents are increasing. How to understand that the large gauge waterway project Hamburg Köln Karlsruhe Belfort Lyon Marseille (may be Barcelona and Genoa) is interminably disputed? Even ecologists reject it, so the coast is clear to the “all by truck” for this future major economic artery of Western Europe. How is the road transport continuing to take the advantage on the rail and inland waterway transports? In France: 1986, 54% of the market; 2006, 80%. (ref. 65)
Remarks of an economic nature :
More generally, the credit has an essential role in our modern economy; a debtor declares himself good Catalyst and promises to produce sufficient Kinetic Fuzzy Entropy to increase the scriptural stock of Realized Fuzzy Entropy of a creditor; a bet on even more Realized Fuzzy Entropy, and which, without us to astonish, was always gained statistically to date, in spite of some bubbles burstings If the credit did not exist for centuries, a small present car would probably cost the price of a light helicopter. In the Middle Ages the harness was more expensive than the horse.
The bank credit fits immediately in the model: banks lend money to you in exchange of a future payment. They register on your account the fiduciary sign of a fraction of their representative reserves of Realized Fuzzy Entropy. You obtain means of prolonging a Chain (see definition) by Kinetic Fuzzy Entropy. The bank counts that the exchange value of the future Realized Fuzzy Entropy will be sufficient to ensure the return on investment. Incidentally, would the Italian Rebirth have existed without the Medici's bank? From that time, emergent artistic emotion is there as ever, even if art is now less preoccupied by the beauty. But isn't the Realized Fuzzy Entropy more obvious behind what became the "market" of art? In many Art review money appears everywhere.
case 1 – a delivery man, manoeuvring back his truck, crushes a 88 year old woman. He is discharged. case 2 – A driver crushes a 87 year old man on a pedestrian crossing.. She is given a suspended prison sentence of four months, one year of suspension of licence and 200 euros of fine. case 3 - a contractual Post office clerk steals money of customers' accounts. She is given a suspended prison sentence of six months, and a two years testing period. case 4 - a father abuses his three children sexually. He is given a prison sentence of thirteen years, an obligation of a five years socio-legal follow-up, and a ten years suspension of civic, civil and family rights. Is the apparent disproportion of these punishments justified? The answer is yes. case 1 – there is homicide, but a delivery man is an effective Catalyst. He uses an energy greedy vehicle by his frequent stops, and delivers products useful for the Fuzzy Entropy Chains. His victim, octogenarian and pedestrian, could not be so effective any more. case 2 - offence and sentence are comparable to those of case 1. The judgement of the case 1 is not fortuitous. case 3 - an unjustified personal enrichment means a Realized Fuzzy Entropy without cause. The accused was tempted by a opportunity of Kinetic Fuzzy Entropy to which she did not have right. This right returned to customers, whose actions had led in recognized states of Fuzzy Entropy, materialized by money. Does the Collective Efficiency Factor require the continuity of the Catalysts Chains of Fuzzy Entropy? Continuity which led to the regulation of the action drive? In societies where Fuzzy Entropy Catalysis was soon strong, did the ownership law codify the continuity of a Chain, long ago? Truism, the deprivation of his right to action would be the first cause of suffering for a prisoner. In our example, the regrettable intrusion of a not approved Catalyst in customers' Chains, leads to a heavier punishment than if the defendant had crushed somebody.. case 4 – children get serious behavioural problems, and for life, when involved in incestuous intercourse. If the situation does not change, their future of effective Catalysts is compromised. Later, if they manage to have children, they may reproduce the paternal behaviour from which they suffered. The Collective Catalyst would be penalized for an unpredictable duration. Press recently noticed that paedophilia becomes the major crime. By the way:
Let us quote also the e-advertising and the rise of an efficient specific format: the promotional links. (ref. 58)
If a comfortable return on investment is guaranteed for the concerned companies, the Committee does not guarantee that the ethical quality of the spectacle will be close to the Olympic ideal.
Let us remark that Collective Sf takes in account the figure of the population, and thus the fall of the birth rate in some countries, a phenomenon that affects Collective Catalyst itself.
Remarks of a social nature :
As well for humanity, if one day placed under difficult conditions by its own Collective Catalyst?
It’s common sense that for religions, ideologies, parties, enterprises, trades, armies and team sports, which gather for a common purpose, the result of total Sf will be better than that of, more or less, dispersed individual efforts. If they can exist, nobody will try to build an Ariane V in his garage.
In the Christian tradition the Power is represented by the "pastor" (of souls), an exotic figure in the city centre, but which marks the perpetuation of these Entropically efficient communities. The stick of the Mesopotamian shepherd took the shape of the bishop's crook, and in our so-called individualistic society, the faithful doesn't take offence when considered like sheep. By the way of Evolution, would Fuzzy Entropy have created the taste of Power, which ensures the duration of the Chain and makes easily admit the risks of a high rank, more exposed?
In the United States additional consumption was quantified to 73 billion kWh of energy and 2,76 billion m3 of water for 2005. (ref. 90)
So, are our societies tolerating towards our familiar poisons, alcohol and tobacco, because “hooked” people die statistically sooner? That these untimely deaths involve for our society a load, or not, is still discussed. However, as the capital immobilized by the pensioners to ensure their security is often not very productive, showing rather Realized Fuzzy Entropy, the total capitalized mass would be thus decreased. Moreover, the more frequent transmission of the inheritance would more often start Kinetic Fuzzy Entropy. In plain language, many heirs spend part or whole of their heritage. Would there be a more rational explanation to the governments’ difficulties to limit the damage caused by these drugs? A minister decides on measures intended to preserve public health, his colleague on production aids to preserve an economic sector: How to understand the media success of calls for funds intended for the treatment of diseases, rather rare and concerning especially young patients? Of course, near seven hundred annual AIDS-related deaths in France are unacceptable. On the other hand, what is done concerning older patients? Why this only resigned, and occulted, acceptance for the hundred of thousands of deaths due to alcohol and tobacco? The general attitude appears identical with respect to the athletes, artists, brokers, businessmen, lorry drivers, students, who shorten their lives by drug taking to improve their performance. Man thinks of a phenomenon of rebound too, antagonist to the successes of medicine. The most obvious example is that of the racing cyclists, of whom few benefit lengthily from their retirement. They are the livelihood of many: fourteen thousand people for the only caravan of the State subsidized “Tour de France”. Their veterinarians do not speak, nor the sponsors, organizers, trainers, commentators. Amazingly, their families don’t appear really concerned. Like the public, without illusions for a long time, which continues to applaud incredible feats, such as a developed power of near 450W during 20mn in a final climb, after five hours of race and three cols.
Remarks of general nature :
Can the cellular automats of J. Conway, S. Wolfram or C. Langton function, without a pen or the electomagnetic fields of their computers? In biology, enzymes explore millions configurations a second, and find the good one. (ref. 27) What makes pass from a complexion to another? Do the known potentials modelize the phenomenon satisfactorily? With a thought for Einstein, what is throwing the dice? What to say on the appearance of the membrane-shelter of the future miraculous cellular mini-factory, on the surprising costly passage to the powerful chemistry of oxygen, or the arrival of endotherm animals, then of all-terrain and all-weather efficient homeotherms?
Sometimes, we have not a unique model for a phenomenon, thus in the flow models of the wing’s aerodynamics (and cf the 6th problem of Hilbert on the kinetic theory of gasses). Is even the conventional logic, with excluded third, compatible with the fuzzy logic? Is the energy transformation following the use of fuzzy logic very different from that obtained by traditional logic? For example: the control of the subway of Sendaï.
By induction, let us apply this assumption in the world of art: directing the Evolution, would Fuzzy Entropy select the mental diagrams that the artist, traditionally speaking of sudden inspiration, reproduces in his favourite field of expression? Mental diagrams that his public does recognize with emotion and that gather?
There too, would the Fuzzy Entropy account for the scientific behaviour, that occults the obviousness of a without end reseach, and sometimes knowingly, privileges the gratifying feeling of action? The religious belief, for example, is accompanying the pilgrim in his walking towards a sanctuary; did Evolution give to the scientific researcher a conviction that accompanies him in his thought process? Polemical topic (T. Kuhn) that an amateur may consider more serenely; having no credit with the recognized scientists, he cannot lose it. There too, is the peripheral reason concealed by a threshold effect? Cf the page "Philosophical Presuppositions". Modestly, a personal example: I have usually the conviction of the reality of the Entropy Catalysis whereas to date, the entourage put aside, nobody let me know that he adheres to this idea. Thus, Einstein and Oppenheimer could only underestimate a parameter more significant today, the development consequences of a hugely powerful bomb. They will have to live with these consequences, but later; at the end of their life. Einstein regretted not to have chosen to be a plumber. It's a general effect: a many physicists and especially of mathematicians, admist with difficulty that their research, apparently far from reality, probably will a day have Fuzzy Entropy repercussions, not necessarily in conformity with their ethics.. Even today where the hindsight reveals us the obviousness, a researcher of very high level in quantum physics, tries to take refuge behind his ingenuous thirst for knowledge. He does not want to hear about the possible consequence of his work, a material, a revolutionary computer that the Pentagon, inter alia, waits impatiently. (ref. 84)
Is its capacity of Kinetic Fuzzy Entropy the present touchstone of any model, from quantum to cosmic? Reciprocally, would the response to the Kantian interrogation be that our knowledge of the world is definitively limited to the only data necessary for Fuzzy Entropy production?
Slowly but surely, the highly no intuitive concept of Entropy, or perhaps Fuzzy Entropy, will become common knowledge. Then our descendants will find odd that we could degrade so much useful energy with such a bad efficiency, without us to question. My Mirage burned 240 litre/minute of kerosene at Mach 2.
Gravity is the motor of a glider, but between the same points of separation from the towplane and the inescapable landing, two pilots will follow different trajectories, satisfying or disappointing. Between the starting place and the inevitable arrival, a snowboarder will fall and the other not; the emergent pleasure of surfing will be suddenly stopped, or not. At the macroscopic scale, we will admit that the deterministic model is our best creation tool of Fuzzy Entropy. At the individual level, if the thought precedes and directs action, dogma however currently under discussion (see before), let us admit that the reassuring model of free will remains applicable; or if you prefer but heavier to carry, regard you as a random phenomenon, what is then exactly you when you toss a coin. If you have a tidy amount, you may choose between a luxury car or a construction on a periodically flooded ground (to simplify), with a final balance sheet Fuzzy Entropically comparable.
To consider a restriction of the energy worldwide consumptionf proves to be utopian. To switch off the light is advised when leaving a room, which saves 100W; your neighbour has just bought a SUV of 100 000W and will make a return journey of 1000km to see the Monaco Grand Prix. I begin to feel compassion for the participants of the environmental High Masses. Climatologists, zoologists, entomologists, agronomists, doctors, I forget some, each specialist exposes gloomy prospects in his narrow branch. Reinforced by the safeguard (?) of the ozone layer and without seeing the main obstacle, our nature (what’s bred in the bone will come out in the flesh), each one, in his corner, advances solutions that the Collective Catalyst is not yet ready to adopt. Of course, these gatherings of 15 000 delegates and as many police officers cannot avoid the paradox, the detrimental consequences of their own Fuzzy Entropy production, of which some tons of CO² ; but for the good cause.
Could conventional thermodynamics, monument of a great formal beauty, clarify the previous commonplace remarks? Do these simple observations show that the ”emergence” of a probably omnipresent “Fuzzentropy”, or of a similar concept, is inevitable? One day, will this thesis be operative for a sustainable development, “instrumental” if this word loses its philosophical pejorative connotation? Let us be persuaded that to give it a stronger mathematical base will be urgent soon. For the near future, let us hope that this Fuzzentropy model will be predictive, falsifiable, and satisfy a statistically signifiant part of the scholars, in a defined field and for an unpredictable duration. (see before)
Then, perhaps we will name it Total Entropy.
Remarks in form of conclusion :
Did the Earth offer already, a few billion years ago a Fuzzy Entropic Potential? Was Life a mean, among others, of increasing this potential? Initially not very “Fuzzentropically” (argh !) efficient, Life progressed while reaching improbable stages, always in the direction of an increasing Fuzzy Entropy production. The Evolution equipped the grampus with an astonishing brain but not with the hand, and equipped the mole with the hand but with a limited brain. The Entropy gravity and the chance gave the primates the complementarity of the brain and the hand ... Today, after the vegetable photosynthesis, animal synthesis of ATP and fruitful industrial synthesis of ammonia, Haber-Bosch process, Life is reaching the nuclear fusion.
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